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into the expectation component and the term premium component, we investigate the change in the predictability of both …
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In this paper, we propose an econometric model of the joint dynamic relationship between the yield curve and the economy to predict business cycles. We examine the predictive value of the yield curve to forecast future economic growth as well as the beginning and end of economic recessions at...
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analysis of the forecasting performance of various specifications by focusing on the last three major US economic slowdowns …
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