We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...

We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...

Investors typically cover a limited number of stocks and have some degree of correlation in their information sets. However, the role of this type of correlation in determining the return comovement between stock pairs is largely unexplored. In this study, we propose a new measure of common...