Consider a finite-state stochastic process governed by an unknown objective probability distribution. Observing the system, a forecaster assigns subjective probabilities to future states. The resulting subjective forecast merges to the objective distribution if, with time, the forecasted...

We present a model of anonymous collective bargaining where individuals preferences and information may be significantly interdependent. We show that the bargaining outcome becomes independent of individuals preferences and information as the bargaining group increases in size. As a corollary,...

Justifiability is a name for a variety of well-documented behavioral phenomena that violate rational choices. For instance, preferences and choices frequently depend on payoff-irrelevant factors, and not only on the collection of alternatives. Motivated by these findings we present a generalized...

In Ellsberg paradox, decision makers that are partially informed about the actual probability distribution violate the expected utility paradigm. This paper develops a theory of decision making with a partially specified probability. The paper takes an axiomatic approach using Anscombe-Aumann's...

A new integral for capacities, different from the Choquet integral, is introduced and characterized. The main feature of the new integral is concavity, which might be interpreted as uncertainty aversion. The integral is then extended to fuzzy capacities, which assign subjective expected values...

An administrator is provided with data collected by several practitioners. These data may include inconclusive observations. The administrator is required to form a frequency distribution on the states of nature that would be approved by external auditors as long as it is compatible with the...