Konjunkturprognosen unterliegen derzeit einer ungewöhnlich hohen Unsicherheit. Jeden Tag werden neue Massnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie angekündigt. Es herrscht nicht nur Unklarheit über die aktuelle und künftige Ausbreitung des Virus, sondern auch über staatliche...

We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households. First, we show that firms perceive a greater exposure to exchange rate movements than households,...

This paper documents daily compound indicators on physical mobility and sales activity in Switzerland during the Corona crisis. We report several insights from these indicators: The Swiss population substantially reduced its activities already before the shops closed and before the authorities...

This paper examines the incidence of firm bankruptcies and start-ups in Switzerland based on unique register data. We propose to assess the frequency of bankruptcies over time using the concept of excess mortality. During the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the first half of 2021, bankruptcy rates...

This paper documents daily compound indicators on physical mobility and sales activity in Switzerland during the Corona crisis. We report several insights from these indicators: The Swiss population substantially reduced its activities already before the shops closed and before the authorities...

Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...

We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households. First, we show that firms perceive a greater exposure to exchange rate movements than households,...

We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households. First, we show that firms perceive a greater exposure to exchange rate movements than households,...

In this paper, we investigate the transmission channels of oil price shocks using a factorial survey. We confront CEOs and CFOs of a representative sample of firms with a hypothetical vignette in which the oil price rises exogenously above managers' baseline expectations. The managers then...

This paper presents novel causal evidence on the relationship between various communication channels employed by central banks and households' expectations about future inflation. In a pre-registered randomized survey experiment administered in 2022, we examine adjustment of inflation...