Recent academic work has developed a method to determine, in real time, if a given stock is exhibiting a price bubble. Currently there is speculation in the financial press concerning the existence of a price bubble in the aftermath of the recent IPO of LinkedIn. We analyze stock price tick data...

Financial risk management models were often used wrongly prior to the 2007 credit crisis, and they are still being used wrongly today. This misuse contributed to the crisis. We show that there are two common misuses of derivative pricing models associated with calibration and hedging “the...

This paper shows that the standard textbook formula for computing the present value of a future random cash flow - the discounted expected value - is formally incorrect and can generate significant errors when used to compute present values. The correct present value method is provided as well...

This paper develops an arbitrage-free pricing theory for a term structure of fi xed income securities that incorporates liquidity risk. In our model, there is a quantity impact on the term structure of zero-coupon bond prices from the trading of any single zero-coupon bond. We derive a set of...

This paper shows that high frequency trading may play a dysfunctional role in financial markets. Contrary to arbitrageurs who make financial markets more efficient by taking advantage of and thereby eliminating mispricings, high frequency traders can create a mispricing that they unknowingly...

Fama (1970) defined an efficient market as one in which prices always “fully reflect” available information. This paper formalizes this definition and provides various characterizations relating to equilibrium models, profitable trading strategies, and equivalent martingale measures. These...

This paper provides asymptotic valuation formulas for credit derivatives on baskets, including synthetic and cash flow CDOs. As such, it provides the link between the "bottom up" and "top down" approaches used for the pricing of these credit risky securities

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky...

This paper extends and refines the Jarrow et al. (2006, 2008) arbitrage free pricing theory for bubbles to characterize forward and futures prices. Some new insights are obtained in this regard. In particular, we: (i) provide a canonical process for asset price bubbles suitable for empirical...

This paper estimates the impact of the Federal Reserve's 2008-2011 quantitative easing (QE) program on the U.S. term structure of interest rates. Different from other studies, we estimate an arbitrage-free term structure model that explicitly includes the quantity impact of the Fed's trades on...