We develop a dynamic simulation model for residential home prices in an economy where defaults on residential mortgages negatively affect housing prices and aggregate income. This simulation model enables us to study the impact of subprime defaults on prime borrowers and the impact of various...

In traditional thinking, an arbitrageur will trade immediately once an arbitrage opportunity appears. Is this the best strategy for the arbitrageur or it is even better to wait for the best time to trade so as to achieve the maximum profit? To answer this question, this paper studies the optimal...

This paper presents an arbitrage-free valuation model for a credit risky security where credit risk coexists and interacts with an asset price bubble and liquidity risk (or liquidity costs). As an illustration, this model is applied to determine the fair rate for microfinance loans

On September 21st, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) embarked on a new unconventional monetary policy, called yield curve control (YCC). We show that YCC creates an arbitrage opportunity in an otherwise frictionless and arbitrage-free government bond market which financial institutions can exploit....

This paper provides an invariance theorem that facilitates testing for the existence of an asset price bubble in a market where the price evolves as a Markov diffusion process. The test involves only the properties of the price process' quadratic variation under the statistical probability. It...

After the 2007 credit crisis, nancial bubbles have once again emerged as a topic of current concern. An open problem is to determine in real time whether or not a given asset's price process exhibits a bubble. Due to recent progress in the characterization of asset price bubbles using the...

We provide a new liquidity based model for financial asset price bubbles that explains bubble formation and bubble bursting. The martingale approach (Cox and Hobson (2005), Jarrow et al. (2007)) to modeling price bubbles assumes that the asset's market price process is exogenous and the...

Credit default swaps (CDS) are term insurance contracts written on traded bonds. This paper studies the economics of CDS using the economics of insurance literature as a basis for analysis. It is alleged that trading in CDS caused the 2007 credit crisis, and therefore trading CDS is an "evil"...

The martingale theory of price bubbles defines an asset bubble to exist when the asset's price process is a strict local martingale, that is, a local martingale that is not a martingale. Using this definition of a price bubble, for continuous semimartingales, we characterize the conditions under...

The martingale theory of bubbles studies the existence and characterization of asset price bubbles in continuous time and continuous trading economies under both the no arbitrage (no free lunch vanishing risk) and no dominance hypotheses. We review this theory, with an emphasis on understanding...