This paper studies the role of the Federal Reserve's policy in the recent boom and bust of the housing market, and in the ensuing recession. By estimating a Structural Dynamic Factor model on a panel of 109 US quarterly variables from 1982 to 2010, we find that, although the Federal Reserve's...

In this paper we investigate whether accounting for non-pervasive shocks improves the forecast of a factor model. We compare four models on a large panel of US quarterly data: factor models, factor models estimated on selected variables, Bayesian shrinkage, and factor models together with...

In this paper we propose to exploit the heterogeneity of forecasts produced by different model specifications to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive.It consists in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then to construct an empirical...

To measure the systemic risk in financial markets, and rank systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), we propose a methodology based on the Google PageRank algorithm. We understand the economic system as interconnected risk shocks of firms in both the financial sector and the real...

In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...

We study the effects of euro area common monetary policy by means of a structural dynamic factor model estimated on a large panel of euro area quarterly series. While we estimate a flat response of prices to a monetary policy shock, which we explain as aggregation of heterogeneous...