What the market thinks is most likely to occur is not necessarily what the market expects to occur. This note explains why most of the surveys of federal funds rate outlook deviate substantially from the true market expectation, especially as the forecast horizon increases. Surveys often ask...

This note ranks the sensitivities of emerging market economies' (EMEs') bond fund flows to changes in the US monetary stance and global risk aversion. Based on the sensitivities, we draw heat maps to indicate the economies that are more likely to suffer large outflows. We find that bond fund...

The emergence and persistence of basis spreads in cross-currency basis swaps (CCBS) since the global financial crisis have become a mystery in international finance, as they violate the long-standing principle of covered interest parity (CIP). We argue that the phenomenon is no mystery but...

We argue that the breakdown of covered interest parity is no mystery but merely a reflection of the new trading environment in which uncollateralized and collateralized transactions have ceased to be treated as equivalent, rendering unsecured interest rates inappropriate for pricing secured...

The emergence and persistence of basis spreads in cross-currency basis swaps (CCBSs) since the global financial crisis have become a mystery in international finance, as they violate the longstanding principle of covered interest parity (CIP). We argue that the phenomenon is no mystery but...

It is well documented in literature that funding condition has been subject to the undue influence of distorted incentives of banks to lend and borrow at quarter ends under Basel III. We investigate whether or not funding risk possibly also suffers the same. Using a state space model, we find...

The emergence and persistence of basis spreads in cross-currency basis swaps (CCBSs) since the global financial crisis have become a mystery in international finance, as they violate the long standing principle of covered interest parity (CIP). We argue that the phenomenon is no mystery but...