Axiomatic, everywhere, to experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic are models: models for prediction, models for understanding, models for projection, models for story-telling. Struggles over the interlocking global crises that the pandemic has provoked—and what to do about them— translate, in...

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of reliable statistical models which, based on the available data, can provide accurate forecasts and impact analysis of alternative policy measures. Here we propose Bayesian time dependent Poisson autoregressive models, that include time...