and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a … new shock process where the shock loads on wedges associated with the model's usual shocks. Realizations of the Covid … shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic …

with endogenous dynamics for the pandemic. There are three main results. First, the macroeconomic effects of the epidemic …

that a shock increase by one standard deviation (about 1.49% increase in the probability of a COVID-19 outbreak) to the … decline in response to this shock, but the magnitude of the reduction is relatively small. …

' preliminary stylized facts during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, a temporary lockdown policy reduces the epidemic's size …