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-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, and Kwiatkowski Phillips Schmidt and Shin; and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The analysis … forecasts daily stock returns for the S&P BSE Sensex and S&P BSE IT time series, using the ARIMA model. The results reveal that …, the ARIMA model is capable of predicting medium- or long-term horizons using historical values of S&P BSE Sensex and S …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012602876
almost same results with low error percentage. Therefore, it is concluded from the study that the estimation ARIMA could be … acceptable, and forecasted beta values are accurate. So far, there are many studies on ARIMA model to forecast the returns of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011921968
The overwhelming empirical support of the Efficient Market Hypothesis makes it one of the widely accepted understandings in modern economics. The internal contradiction, relating to the fact that if inefficiencies didn't exist, opportunists would not search for them, which would in turn give...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003280
the model selection and the forecasting period are strictly separated, the procedure mimics the situation a forecaster …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813537
This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and transactions events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362020
paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month … that both features of the proposed approach enable gains versus existing forecasting techniques. However, the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913585
component in stock returns. When forecasting with large information sets and noisy data, it is vital to employ methods that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322523
performance is the DNSS model in the middle and long periods. The AFNS is inferior to the DNS model for long-period forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039649
In this study, we apply a rolling window approach to wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P500 returns (2000–2020) to obtain time varying Hurst exponents. We analyse the dynamics of the Hurst exponents by applying statistical tests (e.g., for stationarity, Gaussianity and self-similarity), a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229642
forecasting (both in-sample and out-of-sample). Second, we show that the strong performance of the factor model comes from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334522