Abstract This paper extends the Becker (1968)-Ehrlich (1973) model of crime to allow for government transfers. Using the Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984) model, it is shown that one can view deterrence as a tax on (criminal) labor supply. That in turn allows an integration of a crime model with a...

Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk premia. This natural rate puzzle applies not only in the U.S. but across many advanced economies. We use a unified no-arbitrage macro- finance model with two trend factors to...

We study how individual inventors respond to incentives to work on "clean" electricity technologies. Using natural gas price variation, we estimate output and entry elasticities of inventors and measure the medium-term impacts of a price increase mirroring the social cost of carbon. We find that...

We study the early adoption and diffusion of five AI-related technologies (automated-guided vehicles, machine learning, machine vision, natural language processing, and voice recognition) as documented in the 2018 Annual Business Survey of 850,000 firms across the United States. We find that...

Hospitals play a key role in patient outcomes and spending, but efforts to improve their quality are hindered because we do not know whether hospital quality indicators are causal or biased. We evaluate the validity of commonly used quality indicators, such as mortality, readmissions, inpatient...

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation through a cost-push channel and raised inflation...

This paper studies whether green investors can influence corporate greenhouse gas emissions through capital markets, either by divesting their stock and limiting polluters' access to capital, or holding polluters' stock and engaging with management. We focus on public pension funds, classifying...

Household carbon dioxide emissions have been an increasing function of income and distance from the city. Richer suburbanites drive more and consume more electricity and natural gas at home. In recent years, richer people in California have been more likely to buy electric vehicles and to...

Governments in developing countries have low fiscal capacity yet face pressures to provide public goods and services, leading them to rely on various unusual fiscal arrangements. We document one such - hitherto unexplored - arrangement: informal fiscal systems that rely on local bureaucrats to...

We argue that the Democratic Party's evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. We show that less-educated Americans differentially demand "predistribution" policies (e.g., a federal jobs guarantee, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions),...