In this paper we examine three binary regressions in order to predict the financial crisis or no crisis periods in USA. The first one is the Logit model and the other two are binary fuzzy regressions with sigmoid and triangular membership functions. We apply the models in period 1926-2005 and we...

We evaluate the usefulness of satellite-based data on nighttime lights for the prediction of annual GDP growth across a global sample of countries. Going beyond traditional measures of luminosity, such as the sum of lights within a country's borders, we propose several innovative distribution-...

We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...