This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates...

The United States’ dependence on energy imports of fossil fuels has resulted in political and economic insecurity, as well as the depletion of natural resources and increased pollution. Although renewable energy production also creates negative externalities, their scope is much smaller than...

Growing electricity demand and the need to maintain excess energy capacity and meet peak demand in deregulated markets require attracting new investment and ensuring the reliability of electricity supply. These problems can be solved by differentiating electricity tariffs according to the...

Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a widely implemented and discussed supply side state-level regulatory policy instrument aimed to promote generation of renewable energy. Existing literature on RPS developed from discussion of an appropriate policy design, its implementation on national...

This dissertation focuses on forecasting rare macroeconomic events, such as GDP declines and currency crises, using non-parametric methods, highlighting the advantages of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves analysis and the value of qualitative information from expert surveys and...

Panama is a small and fully dollarized economy that positions itself as an international banking center of Latin America. The resilience of its banks (which hold assets double the size of its GDP), is critical for domestic macroeconomic stability. Conservative banking and improvements in...

This paper re-examines indicators of currency crises from Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and subsequent studies using the novel application of a ROC curves analysis. It utilizes a training set (1975-1995) to short-list indicators with the in-sample predictive value and tests their out-of-sample in...

This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates...

This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook and its probability distribution. Using this approach, we evaluate risks to GDP growth in the Dominican Republic using quarterly data for 1996-2018. We group macrofinancial...

This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook and its probability distribution. Using this approach, we evaluate risks to GDP growth in the Dominican Republic using quarterly data for 1996-2018. We group macrofinancial...