near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR …We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the …) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most …

Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and … soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to … developments, the risk of stagflation-a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth-has risen. The recovery from the …

markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the …