The last decade has witnessed two groundbreaking developments in monetary economics: The growth in digital private currencies and negative interest rate policies (NIRP), leaving the zero lower bound no longer binding. These developments have introduced two parallel discussions surrounding the...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The question of what is the economic environment that is most likely to anticipate a recession is still open, as the literature has emphasized either the importance of deteriorating financial conditions and that of worsening macroeconomic indicators. Using a probit forecasting model, we show...

Narratives that portray macroeconomic policies in Japan as unlike ones pursued in other large economies persist. I revisit how several factors, including monetary, fiscal, and demographic factors impact Japan, the US, and the euro area. Panel VARs driven by factors or observed macroeconomic...

This paper proposes a new methodology for extracting inflation expectations from financial markets. For this purpose, a synthetic financial asset is built whose returns are matched with the inflation rate by construction. The methodology estimates the implicit return expected by the market on...

The objectives of this study are three-fold. The first is to rebut Charles Kindleberger’s famous dictum that usury ‘belongs less to economic history than to the history of ideas’; and in particular to demonstrate that the resuscitation of the anti-usury campaign from the early 13th century...

We model a typical Asian-crisis-economy using dynamic general equilibrium tech-niques. Exchange rates obtain from nontrivial fiat-currencies demands. Sudden stops/bank-panics are possible, and key for evaluating the merits of alternative ex-change rate regimes. Strategic complementarities...

This paper analyses the India sovereign yield to find out the principal factors affecting the term structure of interest rate changes. We apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on our data consisting of zero coupon interest rates derived from government bond trading using Nelson-Siegel...

Here we argue that due to the difference between the real GDP growth rate and nominal deposit rate, a demand pull inflation is induced into the economy. On the other hand, due to the difference between real GDP growth rate and nominal lending rate, a cost push inflation is created. We...

Here we argue that due to the difference between the real GDP growth rate and nominal deposit rate, a demand pull inflation is induced into the economy. On the other hand, due to the difference between real GDP growth rate and nominal lending rate, a cost push inflation is created. We...