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Economic theory reduces the concept of rationality to internal consistency. The practice of economics, however …, distinguishes between rational and irrational beliefs. There is therefore an interest in a theory of rational beliefs, and of the … many situations in which there is not sufficient information for an individual to generate a Bayesian prior. Third, this …
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For choice with deterministic consequences, the standard rationality hypothesis is ordinality, i.e., maximization of a …
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of objective information. Moreover, we document that subjects, who received more bad signals, downplay the ego … when presented with objective information. …
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When financial securities are modeled as claims on stochastic processes, each trader's beliefs at time can be summarized by a subjective probability distribution . The dominant Rational Expectations approach typically treats as a singleton that correctly gauges risks. In reality, financial risks...
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Consider any situation involving uncertainty, where the random variable of interest (e.g., payoff) is X. Let there exist a random variable, say Y, which represents the uncertainty intrinsic to the situation, and let there exist a function g such that X=g(Y). Our contention is that, once the...
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Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of...
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