On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

The aim of this paper is to show the implications of the current financial crisis for the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) and its effectiveness in Poland, which is an inflation-targeting emerging market economy. MTM depends on monetary policy, but also on structural features of the...

For a central bank knowledge of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is a prerequisite for achieving its final goal, i.e. price stability. Therefore, this area of analyses and research is of key importance for central banks, including Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP). Every two years since 2011,...

Qualitative data on inflation perceptions and expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified into numerical indicators of the perceived and expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different versions of probability and regression methods, implemented in order...

We assess similiarity of the Polish central bank's forecasts published in Inflation Reports and economic experts' forecasts (from NBP Survey of Professional Forecasts), an important issue in monetary policy. Contrary to other studies which use point forecast, we are interested in comparing whole...

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence that consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes in...

Medium-term inflation expectations of the public are a key variable of interest to any modern central bank responsible for price stability. Using the new ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence that...

In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP...

Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not...