ln this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed - numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative. general-knowledge...

To assess probabilities in decision analysis, and for decision making in general, decision makers must evoke and apply relevant information. Decision analysts have developed a variety of structuring tools to aid decision makers in these tasks, including influence diagrams and knowledge maps....

A cognitive analysis of subjective probability is applied to the evaluation of techniques used by decision analysts for eliciting probabilities from experts. The construction of a subjective probability requires both the formation of a belief and the assessment of a probability that qualifies...

An experiment examined the effects of outcome feedback and three types of performance feedback - calibration feedback, resolution feedback, and covariance feedback - on various aspects of the performance of probability forecasters. Subjects made 55 forecasts in each of four essions,receiving...

Purpose – The present paper examines the effects of two decision‐framing inductions on young adults' set of career options: first, whether young adults use abilities or interests as the grounds for their vocational choices and, second, whether young adults approach the decision‐making task...