This paper examines the pass-through of cost-push shocks to customers at a granular level. Using unique firm-level survey data, we document five facts about pass-through across firms, sectors, and over time. We highlight a new channel relevant for pass-through: beliefs about the expected...

Based on its outward-oriented development strategy, respectable growth, increased integration into world trade and financial markets, and imperfect though vibrant and wide-based democracy, Turkey is often cited as a development model for other countries in the region and elsewhere. Countering...

This paper examines the role of inflation expectations in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island Country, using the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve model. The study applies the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate the Hybrid New Keynesian Philips Curve model using quarterly time series data...

The “crisis exaggerators” are telling us that current economic conditions amount to an “unprecedented” global economic recession. This is historically incorrect. What is unprecedented is the degree to which economic commentators and political leaders are talking up economic downturn....

A New Consensus in Macroeconomics (NCM) has emerged over the past couple of decades or so, which has become highly influential in terms of current thinking on the macroeconomy and of economic policy, especially monetary policy. Its main implication for economic policy has been the implementation...

The recent surge in inflation led many unions and firms to alter their bargaining and wage-setting policies. Using novel German firm-level survey data, we document the extent of state dependence in wage setting across firms and workers during periods of high and low inflation. We find state...

This paper presents a political economy model of inflation as a result of social conflict. Agents are heterogeneous in terms of income. Agents’ income levels determine their ability to hedge against the effects of inflation. The interaction of heterogeneous cash holdings and preferences over...

On 18-19 June 2004, the BIS held a conference on "Understanding Low Inflation and Deflation". This event brought together central bankers, academics and market practitioners to exchange views on this issue (see the conference programme in this document). This paper was presented at the workshop....

This paper presents a political economy model of inflation as a result of social conflict. Agents are heterogeneous in terms of income. Agents' income levels determine their ability to hedge against the effects of inflation. The interaction of heterogeneous cash holdings and preferences over...

Once again the economic experts are telling us that the current (October 2008) financial “crisis” will lead to a deep recession or depression. The financial press is even claiming that we are headed for “global meltdown”. Heard it all before? The last time was in 1998 when we were told...