This paper demonstrates that the use of GARCH-type models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs) may lead to the production of inaccurate and therefore inefficient capital requirements. We show that this inaccuracy stems from the fact that GARCH models typically...

This paper compares a number of different extreme value models for determining the value at risk of three LIFFE futures contracts. A semi-nonparametric approach is also proposed where the tail events are modeled using the Generalised Pareto Distribution and normal market conditions are captured...

There is much evidence in the literature that the volatilities of equity returns show evidence of asymmetric responses to good and bad news. At the same time, there is evidence that the unconditional distribution of stock returns is asymmetric as well. This paper examines the effects of...

Many popular techniques for determining a securities firm's value-at-risk are based upon the calculation of the historical volatility of returns to the assets that comprise the portfolio and of the correlations between them. One such approach is the JP Morgan RiskMetrics methodology using...

The development of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (MGARCH) models from the original univariate specifications represented a major step forward in the modelling of time series. MGARCH models permit time-varying conditional covariances as well as variances,...

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value‐at‐risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect...

This article investigates the effect of modeling extreme events on the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements for three LIFFE futures contracts. The use of internal models will be permitted under the European Community Capital Adequacy Directive II and will be widely adopted in the...