In this paper we develop a trading strategy in which the difference in observed returns of value and growth stocks in the US stock market is exploited. In the literature this return spread is often called the quot;value premiumquot;. In our modeling process we use a procedure similar to the...

The disappointing performance of value and small cap strategies shows that style consistency may not provide the long-term benefits often assumed in the literature. In this study we examine whether the short-term variation in the U.S. size and value premium is predictable. We document...

In this paper, we examine whether the short-term variation in the size and value premium in the Japanese stock market is sufficiently predictable to be exploited by a tactical timing strategy. In the spirit of Pesaran and Timmermann (1995), we employ a dynamic modeling approach in which we...

We propose a simple non-equilibrium model of a financial market as an open system with a possible exchange of money with an outside world and market frictions (trade impacts) incorporated into asset price dynamics via a feedback mechanism. Using a linear market impact model, this produces a...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

This paper outlines a method to forecast FX spot rates. The data set consists of the Bloomberg FX spot rates for emerging markets as defined by Bloomberg. The in-sample data set consisted of weekly FX spot rates for ten Emerging markets, from August 2013 to March 2019. The out sample spanned...

Professors John Campbell and Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) Ratio has proven to be a powerful descriptor, as well as a useful predictor, of long-term equity returns in the United States and some global markets. In recent years, though, it has been criticized for being...

Hedge Fund returns are often highly serially correlated mainly due to illiquidity exposures given that investments in such securities tend to be inactively traded and associated market prices are not always readily available. Following that, observed returns of such alternative investments tend...

An influential observation has the potential to render a model unsuitable for estimation with an OLS regression. This is well known in the statistics literature. However, the use of standard measures for detecting and managing influential observations is not common practice in empirical finance....

GLOBAL FINANCE LIQUIDITY RISK REVISITED: Development of A Framework for Liquidity Assessment in Portfolio Construction Process: Presentations to the JP Morgan Global Head of Quant Research & Analytics and US Head of Portfolio Construction Teams:Presentations To: JP Morgan Global Head of Quant...