In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

This paper utilizes Vector Auto Regression (VAR) models to analyze the interdependence among exchange rates of twelve Asian-Pacific nations, Australia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The daily data span from...

This paper develops two models of the money marketmutual fund maturity decision. The first assumes thatmarkets are efficient but that transactions are costly. Thesecond model relies on a survey of fund managers to selectvariables that might permit exploiting perceivedprofit opportunities....

We find that the data on macroeconomic variables contain relevant information for explaining of future Treasury bond returns besides and beyond the information already contained in historic forward rates. In the forecasting exercise, we impose cross-sectional no-arbitrage-type restrictions on...

This paper utilizes Vector Auto Regression (VAR) models to analyze the interdependence among exchange rates of twelve Asian-Pacific nations, Australia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The daily data span from...

This paper develops two models of the money marketmutual fund maturity decision. The first assumes thatmarkets are efficient but that transactions are costly. Thesecond model relies on a survey of fund managers to selectvariables that might permit exploiting perceivedprofit opportunities....

This paper analyzes the dynamic interrelationships among the exchange rates of twelve countries in the Asian-Pacific region using Vector Auto regression Models. The exchange rates of the following countries are analyzed: Australia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines,...

We construct a model for pricing sovereign debt that accounts for the risks of both default and restructuring, and allows for compensation for illiquidity. Using a new and relatively efficient method, we estimate the model using Russian dollar-denominated bonds.(...)

We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between...