adjust daily COVID-19 deaths to match weekly excess mortality. Focusing on Sweden, the only country that has good data and … did not impose a lockdown, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if it had imposed a lockdown, using a …, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects already after a week. The 3–4 weeks delay highlighted in previous …

reduces mortality rates and peak ICU demand substantially, but that a policy that relaxes high-intensity social distancing …