We decompose the excess market return into speculation and non-speculation components. The former is negative and predicted by market sentiment. The latter is positive and not predicted by sentiment. The speculation component explains roughly 30% of the variation in the excess market return. In...

Momentum is a pervasive characteristic of financial markets that lacks a broadly accepted explanation. In addition to its longstanding challenge to asset pricing theory, recent work finds that momentum poses a challenge for expected utility (EU) theory, opening an avenue for new decision...

We investigate consumers’ preference for scarcity in a real market with large stakes. We find evidence that the elasticity of demand for scarcity is constant across prices ranging from $50 to nearly $4 million, that preference for scarcity follows a power law, and that it explains 95% of the...

We study a representative agent that separates beliefs, ambiguity, and ambiguity attitude and nests benchmark models of expected utility preferences and ambiguity aversion. Within that framework, matching four market moments (the risk-free rate, equity premium, variance risk premium, and...

The quantitative implications of income taxation for innovation and aggregate productivity growth are evaluated in the context of a Schumpeterian model of innovation-led growth. In the model, innovation comes from entrant firms creating new products and from incumbent firms improving own...

Recent studies have documented several trends in the U.S. market structure since the 1980s, such as the rise of large firms' markups and their profit margins. An important but not emphasized trend is the rise of the fixed operating costs of large firms. This trend is so salient that the...

We formulate and estimate a general equilibrium model of innovation-led growth and use it to evaluate the quantitative implications of individual income tax reforms for innovation and aggregate productivity growth. In the model, innovation comes from entrants creating new products and incumbents...