Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...

This paper examines the evolution of the U.S. interest swap market. The authors review the theory and past empirical studies on U.S. swap spreads, and estimate an error-correction model for maturities of 2, 5, and 10 years from 1994 to 2004. Financial theory depicts swaps as contracts indexed on...