I document that a simple portfolio strategy, selling stocks with worsening business outlook, provides significant abnormal returns. I construct a portfolio of firms one day after they experience a change in business outlook for all sample trading days. Over the sample of 56 consecutive trading...

This thesis focuses on the use of machine learning in financial event prediction. In the past, finance academics had to be content with mostly linear models that could only ingest a small number of variables of a particular type. Now we can use non-linear models with a larger number of variables...

I study the use of non-linear models and accounting inputs to predict the occurrence of litigated bankruptcies and their associated filing outcomes. The main purpose of this study is to identify the accounting patterns associated with bankruptcies. The filing outcomes include, among others, how...

This paper investigates various machine learning trading and portfolio optimisation models and techniques. The notebooks to this paper are Python based. By last count there are about 15 distinct trading varieties and around 100 trading strategies. Code and data are made available where...

This paper predicts the likelihood that a restaurant will close within the next one to two years using a Yelp restaurant dataset and a high dimensional gradient boosting machine called LightGBM (hereafter GBM). This model, trained on more than 20,000 individual restaurants, has an accuracy just...

This is a holistic framework to approach fair prediction outputs at the individual and group level. This framework includes quantitative monotonic measures, residual explanations, benchmark competition, adversarial attacks, disparate error analysis, model agnostic pre-and post-processing,...

DataGene is developed to identify data set similarity between real and synthetic datasets as well as train, test, and validation datasets. For many modelling and software development tasks there is a need for datasets to have share similar characteristics. This has traditionally been achieved...

A look at regulatory challenges and recommendation in the age of AI. Investigating topics like monopoly formation, machine learning auditability, bias mitigation strategies and automated regulatory monitoring

Machine learning models are increasingly used in a wide variety of financial settings. The difficulty of understanding the inner workings of these systems, combined with their wide applicability, has the potential to lead to significant new risks for users; these risks need to be understood and...

Similar to the original Pandas project, PandaPy is developed to improve the usability of python for finance. Structured data types are designed to be able to mimic ‘structs’ in the C language, and they share a similar memory layout. The biggest benefit of this approach is that NumPy directly...