We study the one-year-ahead budgetary projections from the Stability and Convergence Programmes of EU Member States since the start of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) until the start of the coronavirus crisis. We consider first budget-balance errors, which we then split into expenditure...

Long-term projections are the bedrock of any analysis looking at the sustainability of public finances. This paper computes the changes in economic growth in individual European Union (EU) countries needed for government debt-to-GDP ratios to stay on their baseline trajectories (taken from the...

It is widely argued that Europe''s unified monetary policy calls for international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved in such coordination in the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization. A simple model identifies the circumstances under which coordination may be...

The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater ""procedural"" flexibility in the Pact''s implementation may improve welfare. Procedural flexibility designates the enforcer''s room to apply judgment on underlying policies and...

This paper analyzes the decision of a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact. The model shows that a pact may harm structural reforms, sacrificing future growth for present stability....