Prior literature shows that earnings have come to explain less stock price movement over time, suggesting that firm fundamental information has become less important. In this paper, we replace earnings with earnings announcement returns as a measure of firm fundamental news and find that these...

Prior studies show that investor learning about earnings-based return predictors from academic research erodes return predictability. However, the signaling power of “bottom-line” earnings has declined over time, which complicates assessments of investor learning about profitability signals...

We provide the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are well-populated, but are unreliable outside the...

We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log- linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the valuation anchor. We...

The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

This paper develops an analytically coherent yet parsimonious framework which explains market returns in terms of contemporaneous information. It anchors on the idea that valuation (static perspective) can be connected to the dynamics that explains returns, and vice versa. The framework requires...

This paper examines to what extent stock market anomalies are driven by firm fundamentals in an investment-based asset pricing framework. Using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we estimate a two-capital q-model to match firm-level stock returns, instead of matching portfolio-level...

This study examines the relative importance of percentage change in price-to-earnings ratio (PE), percentage change in dividend yield (DY) and change in aggregate Tobin's q ratio (∆TBQ) in forecasting returns on the S&P 500 (SP). The results from the variance decomposition analysis of...

This paper investigates whether analysts' optimism affects the stock crash risk. Analysts' optimism can increase stock crash risk either by inducing overvaluation or by providing managers an opportunity to withhold bad news. Using analysts' forecast error as a proxy for analysts' optimism, we...

Post-earnings announcement drift is stronger in firms that release earnings on days when market returns are higher in magnitude. This drift remains robust after controlling for previously documented factors such as Friday releases, the number of simultaneous releases, and price delay measure....