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People reason about uncertainty with deliberately incomplete models, including only the most relevant variables. How do people hampered by different, incomplete views of the world learn from each other? We introduce a model of “model-based inference.” Model-based reasoners partition an...
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paradigmatic instance of observational learning. There are three players, arranged in sequence, each of whom wins a fixed price if … learning ; error cascades …
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Recession. I next develop a heterogeneous firm model with Bayesian learning and uncertainty shocks to study the aggregate …'s (1982) model of learning in a setting where each firm gradually learns about its own productivity, and each occasionally … experiences a shock forcing it to start learning afresh. Firms differ in their information; more informed firms have lower …
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We derive conditions on the learning environment - which encompasses both Bayesian and non-Bayesian processes … rules in our dynamic allocation problems with incomplete information and learning, and between the classical problem of …
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