This paper analyzes the dynamics of long-term US Treasury security yields from a Keynesian perspective using daily data. Keynes held that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate. In this paper, the daily changes in long-term Treasury security yields are...

This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities ("gilts") based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term interest rate. Quarterly data are used to model gilts' nominal yields. These models bring to light...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

This paper employs a Keynesian perspective to explain why Japanese government bonds' (JGBs) nominal yields have been low for more than two decades. It deploys several vector error correction (VEC) models to estimate long-term government bond yields. It shows that the low short-term interest...

This paper employs a Keynesian perspective to explain why Japanese government bonds' (JGBs) nominal yields have been low for more than two decades. It deploys several vector error correction (VEC) models to estimate long-term government bond yields. It shows that the low short-term interest...

This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the period 1962-2021 using two different fractional integration approaches including Chebyshev polynomials and Fourier functions respectively. The results for both quarterly and...

This paper analyses persistence and non-linearities in quarterly and monthly US Treasury 10-year bond yields over the period 1962-2021 using two different fractional integration approaches including Chebyshev polynomials and Fourier functions respectively. The results for both quarterly and...

This paper characterizes the risk-return trade-off in the U.S. Treasury market. We propose a discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure model, in which bond prices are solved in closed form and the conditional variances of bond yields are decomposed into a short-run component and a long-run...

Unique features and market frictions can lead to idiosyncratic pricing for some US Treasury securities. This study uses a linear programming (LP) model to measure aggregate idiosyncratic pricing of T-notes and T-bonds from 1980 to 2016. We document an average idiosyncratic pricing of $0.11 per...

We study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a long-run risks model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent. This...