Statistical analysis provides a risk assessment of nuclear safety based on historical data. We use classical probabilistic models from risk theory to analyze data on nuclear power accidents from 1952 to 2011. Findings are that the severities of nuclear power accidents should be modeled with an...

Telematics car driving data describes drivers' driving characteristics. This paper studies the predictive power of telematics data for claims frequency prediction. We first extract covariates from telematics car driving data using K-mediods clustering and principal components analysis. These...

Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can be used for differentiating the different causes of...

The intention of this paper is to analyse the mean square error of prediction (MSEP) under the distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) claims reserving method. We compare the estimation obtained from the classical bootstrap method with the one obtained from a Bayesian bootstrap. To achieve this in...

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of...

The chain-ladder method is one of the most popular claims reserving techniques. The aim of this study is to back-test the chain-ladder method. Therefore, we use a stochastic scenario generator which allows us to simulate arbitrarily many upper claims reserving triangles of similar...

The main idea of this paper is to embed a classical actuarial regression model into a neural network architecture. This nesting allows us to learn model structure beyond the classical actuarial regression model if we use as starting point of the neural network calibration exactly the classical...

The Lee-Carter model is a basic approach to forecasting mortality rates of a single population. Although extensions of the Lee-Carter model to forecasting rates for multiple populations have recently been proposed, the structure of these extended models is hard to justify and the models are...