We examine whether monetary policy uncertainty influences the reaction of the equity, Treasury security, foreign exchange and crude oil markets, as well as medium-term interest rates, to U.S macroeconomic announcements. Using intraday futures data, we show that in the presence of higher policy...

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business...

We examine stock index and Treasury futures markets around releases of U.S. macroeconomic announcements. Seven out of 21 market-moving announcements show evidence of substantial informed trading before the official release time. Prices begin to move in the "correct" direction about 30 minutes...

We use sequential energy inventory announcements to shed new light on the informational efficiency of financial markets. Our findings provide clear evidence of inefficiency in crude oil futures and stock markets. This inefficiency can be exploited by sophisticated traders. We examine the effect...

This paper examines cyclical variation in the effect of Fed policy on the stock market. We find a much stronger response of stock returns to unexpected changes in the Federal funds target rate in recession and in tight credit market conditions. Using firm-level data, we also show that firms that...

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic announcements on equity index markets using high frequency transactions data for the regular and E-mini Samp;P 500 index futures contracts. For ten types of announcements that significantly affect prices, we analyze the price adjustment process...

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy surprises on energy prices at intra-day, daily, and monthly frequencies. We measure monetary policy shocks using changes in interest rate futures prices that capture unexpected changes in the federal funds target rate. We find a significant...

This paper examines the price dynamics in the Samp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index futures contracts. By utilizing transactions data with attached trader type identification codes, we are able to analyze price dynamics for trades initiated by exchange locals and off-exchange customers. The empirical...

We analyze the adaptation of traders and the determinants of trader survival during a period of changing market structures. Our unique sample of transactions level data covers the introduction of electronic trading in the NYMEX energy futures market. The results show that most floor traders...