Goal: ISO 31000 Risk Management (RM) recently re-defined risk as the effect of uncertainty on an organization's ability to meet the objectives. Earlier, it defined risk as a combination of the probability and scope of the (predicted) consequences. The revised ISO Risk advances beyond a static...

Network-Centric Meaning-Driven Human-Centric AI-Cyber Computing Beyond Data-Driven to Event-Driven Architectures for Quantum Uncertainty, 1995-2023:Building upon the contextual focus of current global worldwide discussions on GPT, ChatGPT, GenAI, Generative AI, Large Language Model - LLMs, we...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

Many statistical procedures utilize preliminary tests to enhance the accuracy of the final inferences. Preliminary tests like Goldfeld-Quandt (GQ) and Levene-type tests are used to assess the assumption of equality of population variances with normality as the underlying distributional...

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...

We study Bayesian decision making based on observations `Xn,t : t isin; {0, Tn , 2 Tn , . . . , n Tn}acute;(T gt; 0, n isin; N) of the discrete-time price dynamics of a financial asset, when the hypothesis a special n-period binomial model and the alternative is a different n-period binomial...

A formal, but intuitive framework is introduced to bridge the gap between data obtained from empirical studies and that generated by agent-based models. This is based on three key tenets. Firstly, a simulation can be given multiple formal descriptions corresponding to static and dynamic...

An "explosion moment" is a large movement in the market that can be caused by fundamental changes or the normal dynamic of some assets. These movements can be difficult to navigate and can lead to poor investment decisions. There are two types of events that can cause explosion moments:...

This study addresses the robustness of the connection between exchange rate uncertainty and Tunisia’s exports along several econometric methods, acknowledging the complexity of this relationship. To this end, we apply conventional methods (OLS by threshold, instrumental variable by threshold...

This research represents some thoughts on the accurate characterization of the stock market indexes trends in the conditions of the nonlinear capital flows at the stock exchanges in the global capital markets. We make our original research proposal that the nonlinear capital flows in the process...