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learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636284
learning and the interest rate rule is a function of public expectations. If the policymaker does not have full information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946262
confidence in the ability to learn raises incentives, while confidence in the level of human capital lowers incentives for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926724
We explore the consequences of losing confidence in the price-stability objective of central banks by quantifying the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181222
We explore the consequences of losing confidence in the price-stability objective of central banks by quantifying the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012317310
the help of econometric models. Agents use least squares learning to estimate two competing models of which one is … consistent with rational expectations once learning is complete. When past performance governs the choice of forecast model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765344
Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with a nonlinearity in the monetary policy rule to capture the practice of inflation targeting with target zones or tolerance bands. Private-sector agents form subjective expectations, update their beliefs over time using a perceived model of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015407758
Experience-Based Learning (EBL) that renders expectations heterogeneous across age groups. Under EBL, the age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013330596
. Learning by shopping anchors households' beliefs about inflation to its past, causing disagreement with firms over the value of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069687