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ratios through 2020 for Italy and Spain. The new approach takes account of likely correlations across 243 alternative … high primary surplus) and Spain (where the ratios rise but at a decelerating pace and from relatively low levels) …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102155
The OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook provides an update of trends and developments associated with sovereign borrowing requirements, funding strategies, market infrastructure and debt levels from the perspective of public debt managers. The central government marketable gross borrowing needs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081141
This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082161
This paper seeks to eliminate or reduce confusions about (related) key concepts such as the risk free rate, safe assets and sovereign risk in policy and academic discussions. A lack of consensus and confusions on how to define, measure and price “sovereign risk” is an important obstacle in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083358
The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt. The objective of this paper is to calculate endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399483
This paper provides evidence on the debt limits and fiscal space for some Latin American emerging economies under the fiscal fatigue approach (Ghosh et al., 2013). We propose the spline technique to estimate each government's reaction function and the sovereign risk premium endogenous to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545587
What type of crisis is generated when debt increases? We study the Spanish debt evolution in the 19th and 20th centuries by introducing currency and stock-market crises in the Reinhart and Rogoff (2011) framework. We find their same results for the determinants of banking and debt crises but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010831
On the one hand, every official document about fiscal policy in Spain, and most orthodox academic papers argue that … Spain has no "fiscal space" and that it should apply resolute actions to assure budget consolidation. On the other hand …, Spain also had the second highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone in 2015: 21% of the active population. A rapid decline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011609617
On the one hand, every official document about fiscal policy in Spain, and most orthodox academic papers argue that … Spain has no "fiscal space" and that it should apply resolute actions to assure budget consolidation. On the other hand …, Spain also had the second highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone in 2015: 21% of the active population. A rapid decline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595916
The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to act as a warning system for national...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011634439