factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q … observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …

the shock. In particular, we find that adverse shocks to Iranian oil output are neutralized in terms of their effects on … contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …

, most evidently in the industrialized world. The group-specific factors, on the other hand, play a much greater role for … national business cycles than previously thought - also in the pre-globalization period. …

the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth …

The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009 …, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by …