We present a framework for measuring the evolution of risks to financial stability over the financial cycle, which we apply to the United Kingdom. We identify 29 indicators of financial stability risk, drawing from the literature on early warning indicators of banking crises. We normalise and...

How can macroeconomic tail risks originating from financial vulnerabilities be monitored systematically over time? This question lies at the heart of operationalising the macroprudential policy regimes that have developed around the world in response to the global financial crisis. Using...

We propose a theory of bank behaviour under capital requirements that accounts for both risk-shifting incentives and debt overhang considerations. A key result is that the bank's lending response to an increase in the requirement need not be negative. The sign and the magnitude of the response...

Government guarantees generate an implicit subsidy for banks. A capital requirement reduces this subsidy, through a simple liability composition effect. However, the guarantees also make a bank undervalue loans that generates surplus in the states of the world where it defaults. Raising the...