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Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns : A Score Driven State Space Model

Delle Monache, Davide - 2020

In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441

Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns : a score driven state space model

Delle Monache, Davide; Petrella, Ivan; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2020

In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426

Simple market timing with moving averages

Ilomäki, Jukka; Laurila, Hannu; McAleer, Michael - 2018

average daily returns, even though the volatility is virtually unchanged when the frequency is lower. The volatility from the … highest to the lowest frequency is about 30% lower as compared with the buy-and-hold strategy volatility, but the average … returns approach the buy-and-hold returns when frequency is lower. The 30% reduction in volatility appears if we invest …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011848115

Dividends versus Stock Repurchases and Long-Run Stock Returns under Heterogeneous Beliefs

Bayar, Onur - 2017

We analyze a firm's choice between dividend payments and stock repurchases under heterogeneous beliefs and the subsequent long-term stock return performance of firms adopting the two forms of payout. Firm insiders, owning a certain fraction of its equity, choose between paying out its cash...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974192

Long run returns predictability and volatility with moving averages

Chang, Chia-Lin; Ilomäki, Jukka; Laurila, Hannu; … - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 4, pp. 1-18

This paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affects financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011906234

The effect of COVID-19 on the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns

Poudeh, Seyed Reza Tabatabaei; Choi, Sungchul; Fu, Chengbo - In: Risks : open access journal 10 (2022) 3, pp. 1-11

This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and …), we estimate monthly idiosyncratic volatility and investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic at the portfolio and … idiosyncratic volatility and subsequent stock returns switches from negative to positive during the pandemic period. Furthermore, we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013161497

A Theory of Capital Structure, Price Impact, and Long-Run Stock Returns under Heterogeneous Beliefs

Bayar, Onur - 2016

We study an environment with short sale constraints and heterogeneous beliefs among outsiders and between insiders and outsiders. Firm insiders choose between equity, debt, and convertible debt to raise external financing. We analyze two settings: one where heterogeneous beliefs is the only...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013008933

Oil price changes and stock returns : fresh evidence from oil exporting and oil importing countries

Atif, Mohd; Rabbani, Mustafa Raza; Bawazir, Hana; … - In: Cogent economics & finance 10 (2022) 1, pp. 1-14

The study examines the vital connection between stock returns and oil price changes for oil exporting/importing countries separately. We present evidence employing granger causality, impulse response and error variance decomposition based on panel vector autoregression. The results of panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013464376

The factor-spline-GARCH model for high and low frequency correlations

Rangel, Jose Gonzalo; Engle, Robert F. - 2009

frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063

A flexible regime switching model for asset returns

Paolella, Marc S.; Polak, Pawel; Walker, Patrick S. - 2019

A non-Gaussian multivariate regime switching dynamic correlation model for fi nancial asset returns is proposed. It incorporates the multivariate generalized hyperbolic law for the conditional distribution of returns. All model parameters are estimated consistently using a new two-stage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012051878