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Financial instability and economic activity

Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Sögner, Leopold - 2021

We estimate new indices measuring financial and economic (in)stability in Austria and in the euro area. Instead of estimating the level of (in)stability in a financial or economic system we measure the degree of predictability of (in)stability, where our methodological approach is based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792745

Empirical model for forecasting exchange rate dynamics : the GO-GARCH approach

Isenah, Godknows M.; Olubusoye, Olusanya E. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 7 (2016) 1, pp. 179-208

The study aimed at determining a set of superior generalized orthogonal-GARCH (GO-GARCH) models for forecasting time-varying conditional correlations and variances of five foreign exchange rates vis-à-vis the Nigerian Naira. Daily data covering the period 02/01/2009 to 19/03/2015 was used, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011534717

Range-based volatility estimation and forecasting

Benčík, Daniel - 2014

prices. We empirically assess efficiency gains in volatility estimation when using range-based estimators as opposed to … simple daily ranges and explore the use of these more efficient volatility measures as predictors of daily ranges. The array … forecasts are produced by a realized range based HAR model with a GARCH volatility-of-volatility component. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010461231

Bivariate volatility modeling with high-frequency data

Matei, Marius; Rovira, Xari; Agell, Núria - In: Econometrics : open access journal 7 (2019) 3/41, pp. 1-15

We propose a methodology to include night volatility estimates in the day volatility modeling problem with high … the natural relationship between the realized measure and the conditional variance. This improves volatility modeling by … leverage effect and maintains a mathematical structure that facilitates volatility estimation. A class of bivariate models that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160811

Evaluating density forecasts with an application to stock market returns

Raaij, Gabriela de; Raaij, Gabriela de; Raunig, Burkhard - 2002

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001657476

Support vector regression based GARCH model with application to forecasting volatility of financial returns

Chen, Shiyi (contributor); Jeong, Kiho (contributor); … - 2008

financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH … to forecast financial markets volatility. The real data in this study uses British Pound-US Dollar (GBP) daily exchange … examined to the free parameters. Keywords: recurrent support vector regression ; GARCH model ; volatility forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636113