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Uncertainty and economic activity : a global perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2014
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286232
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Uncertainty and economic activity : a global perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2014
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338658
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Banking panic risk and macroeconomic uncertainty
Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk; Poeschl, Johannes - 2020
We show that systemic risk in the banking sector breeds macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a model of a production …-driven uncertainty amplifies business cycle volatility and increases risk premia on asset prices. A countercyclical capital buffer lowers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149870
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Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles
Gerba, Eddie; Żochowski, Dawid - 2017
The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011656163
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Disaster Risk and Business Cycles
Gourio, Francois - 2010
Most macroeconomic models fail to replicate the level, volatility, and countercyclicality of risk premia which has been …-varying risk of economic disaster. Both asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates respond to this time-varying risk. The model is … prices. An increase in the risk of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, with no current or future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146622
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Sectoral uncertainty
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Tuzcuoglu, Kerem; Uzeda, Luis - 2022
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013419275
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Uncertainty and economic activity : a multi-country perspective
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2018
for by the real common factor, which is proportional to world growth in our empirical model and linked to the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011800098
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Estimating financial integration in Europe : how to separate structural trends from cyclical fluctuations
Lake, Alfred; Maurin, Laurent; Minnella, Enrico - 2022
from structural integration shocks. Increasing structural financial integration tends to improve risk absorption and reduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453687
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Financial, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of cross-country portfolio equity flows
Afonso, António; Alves, José; Beck, Krzysztof; … - 2022
We consider a new dataset that provides a description of the population of financial equity flows between developed countries from 2001 to 2018. We follow the standard practice of controlling for pull and push factors as well as gravity-style variables, while also accounting for the business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332123
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Global financial cycles since 1880
Potjagailo, Galina; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019
We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987786