This paper places the data revision model of Jacobs and van Norden (2011) within a class of trend-cycle decompositions relating directly to the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. In both these approaches identifying restrictions on the covariance matrix under simple and realistic conditions may...

A well-documented property of the Beveridge-Nelson trend-cycle decomposition is the perfect negative correlation between trend and cycle innovations. We show how this may be consistent with a structural model where trend shocks enter the cycle, or cycle shocks enter the trend and that...

In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...

Interest rates have fallen worldwide in recent decades, a phenomenon that has been linked at least in part to a decline in the natural rate of interest, r* (a.k.a. “r-star”). To investigate this decline, we consider a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition of real interest rates using a...

The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...

This paper shows how to decompose weakly stationary time series into the sum, across time scales, of uncorrelated components associated with different degrees of persistence. In particular, we provide an Extended Wold Decomposition based on an isometric scaling operator that makes averages of...

We propose a decomposition of financial time series into Gaussian subsequences characterized by a constant Hölder exponent. In (multi)fractal models this condition is equivalent to the subsequences themselves being stationarity. For the different subsequences, we study the scaling of the...

This paper uses a frequency domain approach to gain insight into the correlation between survey indicators and year-on-year GDP growth. Using the Baxter-King filter, we split up each series into three components: a short-term, a business cycle (oscillations between 18 and 96 months) and a...

Multivariate analysis can help to focus on economic phenomena, including trend and cyclical movements. To allow for potential correlation with seasonality, the present paper studies a three component multivariate unobserved component model, focusing on the case of quarterly data and showing that...

Perron and Wada (J Monet Econ 56:749-65, 2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle components, which overcomes the identification problems of models of unobserved components (UC) and ARIMA models and at the same time, admits non-linearities and asymmetries in...