The paper deals with modelling of spot rate process in the market for government securities in transitional economy. The case of the Russian Treasury bills market is taken as an example. We use three approaches to estimation of parameters of spot rate stochastic process: AR-GARCH time series...

In 2018, the growth rate of GDP in Russia (2.3 percent) represents a record high of per annum economic growth rate since 2012. This year-end result is notably above the estimates offered by a majority of international financial organizations (the IMF, World Bank, the OECD), as well as by Russian...

Developments that unfolded in Q1 2016, particularly the decline of crude oil prices down to a 12-year low, may result in worse-than-expected outcomes at 2016 year-end. Unlike the forecast that we made in January, we have revised down our 2016 baseline scenario for GDP growth rates from -1.4% to...

The lower scale of GDP decline in 2015–2016 that resulted from the revision, by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), of its previously released data produced a ‘base effect' which, in its turn, scaled down the existing forecasts for 2017–2018: the reported recovery...

In Q 3-4 2016, Russia's economy entered the phase of cyclical growth from the lowest point of the business cycle, its typical feature being the unstable movement patterns of the main socioeconomic development indicators. Inflation hit its historic low. The ruble's strengthening boosted the...

The RF Ministry of Economic Development presented three scenarios in its socioeconomic development forecast for 2016, which envisaged that the GDP decline trajectory would hit its lowest point in 2015 (-3.9%), and the rate of GDP growth would be fluctuating somewhere between (-1.0) and 2.3% in...

Recently we see a growing interest to and debates on the role of international associations like G20 or BRICS in the global economic renewal and global economic governance. Along with this there is a lot of issues related to establishing new international financial institutions like the New...

The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia's GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contraction is mostly of structural nature induced by the...

The economic development indicators in the Russian Federation over the first half-year of 2015 and the initial data on the movement of the main macroeconomic indices in July-August 2015 are such that they have necessitated a downward adjustment of the main macroeconomic indices plotted in the...

The results of the estimates made using a method developed by the Gaidar Institute for decomposing Russia's GDP growth rates show that economic contraction in 2015 is determined by structural causes, according to the two scenarios within an updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic...