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Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden

Sundell, Anders; Lewis-Beck, Michael S. - 2014

We develop a simple structural forecasting model of govenment support in Swedish parliamentary elections, building on unemployment and inflation figures. The model predicts that the incumbent government will receive 49.7 percent of the vote in the september 2014 elections. In contrast, a simple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014144802

Electoral Cycles in Macroeconomic Forecasts

Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2021

This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226657

Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts

Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514965

Forecasting the 2013 Bundestag Election Using Data from Various Polls

Selb, Peter - 2013

) estimates of the party vote shares at the upcoming Bundestag election. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to … heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we do not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own … right. Instead, we use historical data to empirically assess the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077415

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections

Calvo, Richard; Pons, Vincent; Shapiro, Jesse M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

on US elections since 1952. We envision a forecaster who fits a model using data from a given election and uses that … each election will have a 50-50 partisan split. Enriching the set of demographics available does not change this conclusion …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094858

Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts

Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2022

This paper documents the existence of electoral cycles in GDP growth forecasts released by governments. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336207

Can we predict election results by using Twitter data?

Arslan, Beyza - 2022

In this paper, I examine whether 2018 Turkey General Election results can be predicted by using tweets of media outlets …’ during election period. I construct measures and develop model to predict election result by combining both sentiment … are really promising in terms of closeness to real election results. I examine the change inclusion rates of candidates …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243604

Predicting Elections from Politicians’ Faces

Armstrong, J. Scott; Green, Kesten C.; Jones, Randall J.; … - 2015

election. To ensure that raters did not recognize the candidates, we relied heavily on young subjects from Australia and New …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014195624

Balancing Competing Demands : Position-Taking and Election Proximity in the European Parliament

Lindstädt, René; Slapin, Jonathan; Wielen, Ryan J. Vander - 2012

parliamentary term to assess how European Parliament (EP) election proximity affects party group cohesion. Our formal model of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014205867

Estimating Parliamentary Composition Through Electoral Polls

Delicado, Pedro; Udina, Frederic - 2002

Any electoral system has an electoral formula that converts vote proportions into parliamentary seats. Pre-electoral polls usually focus on estimating vote proportions and then applying the electoral formula to give a forecast of the parliament's composition. We here describe the problems...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014117097