The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive...

The history of the stock market is full of events striking enough to earn their own names: the Great Crash of 1929, the ’Tronics Boom of the early 1960s, the Go-Go Years of the late 1960s, the Nifty Fifty bubble of the early 1970s, the Black Monday crash of October 1987, and the Internet or...

In contrast to the well-known unstable relationship between the returns on government bonds and stock indices, we find that bonds are robustly related to the cross-section of stock returns in both comovement and predictability patterns. Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like...

In contrast to the well-known unstable relationship between the returns on government bonds and stock indices, we find that bonds are robustly related to the cross-section of stock returns in both comovement and predictability patterns. Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like...

In contrast to the well-known unstable relationship between the returns on government bonds and stock indices, we find that bonds are robustly related to the cross-section of stock returns in both comovement and predictability patterns. Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like...

In contrast to the well-known unstable relationship between the returns on government bonds and stock indices, we find that bonds are robustly related to the cross-section of stock returns in both comovement and predictability patterns. Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like...

In contrast to the well-known unstable relationship between the returns on government bonds and stock indices, we find that bonds are robustly related to the cross-section of stock returns in both comovement and predictability patterns. Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like...

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term spread predict excess bond...