We examine the sensitivity of 31 UK non-financial industries to exchange and interest rate exposure from 1990 to 2006 using first-order autoregressive exponential GARCH-in-mean (EGARCH-M) model. We find that the stock returns of UK industries are more affected by long-term interest rate risk...

Carry traders invest in high-yield currencies, which are typically the currencies of commodity exporters. Guided by this stylized fact, we study the impact of commodity prices on carry trade performance. Commodity price shocks contemporaneously explain and predict carry trade returns but only...

We investigate the dynamic interconnectedness among the major world cross-currency basis swap spreads during tranquil and turbulent times. We examine whether movements in the bases are merely anecdotal or provide evidence of contagion, the most central basis for spillover propagation, and...

This paper shows that there are two regularities in foreign exchange markets in advanced countries with flexible regimes. First, real exchange rates are mean-reverting, as implied by the Purchasing Power Parity model. Second, the adjustment takes place via nominal exchange rates. These features...

This paper proposes an equilibrium relationship between expected exchange rate changes and differentials in expected returns on risky assets. We show that when expected returns on a risky asset in a certain economy are higher than the returns that are expected from investing in a risky asset in...

This paper investigates the relationship between the euro-dollar exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals. First, we develop a simple theoretical model in which chartists and fundamentalists interact. This model predicts the existence of different regimes, and thus non-linearities in the...

The literature on uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) shows two empirical puzzles. One is the failure of UIP, and the other is the unstable coefficients in the UIP regression. We propose a time-varying coefficients model with stochastic volatility and US structural shocks (TVC-SVX) to study how...

We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVAR model is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate...

The study of financial shock propagation across markets has motivated numerous researchers to investigate the mechanisms of return and volatility spillovers to prevent harmful shock transmission. This article studies the contemporaneous spillovers by employing a structural vector autoregressive...

We utilize Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate, in finite samples, the forecasting performance of the monetary model. The data generating process (DGP) is based on the assumptions of Engel and West (2005) about the present-value model for exchange rates, namely that the discount factor is close...