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In this paper, I seek to establish a framework in which solutions to imperfect recall decision problems can be suitably examined. I introduce a strategy concept which is an extension of the standard concept employed since von Neumann and Morgenstern, and show how it may provide optimal solutions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011545421
In this paper, I study decision theory in the presence of imperfect recall. I use an extension of the standard strategy concept for the analysis of extensive form games in order to examine the range of imperfect recall problems for which there exists an optimal solution. Optimality is assessed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011545463
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In this study we introduce a new stochastic choice rule that categorizes objects in order to simplify the choice procedure. At any given trial, the decision maker deliberately randomizes over mental categories and chooses the best item according to her utility function within the realized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526886
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We develop a general framework to study contests, containing the well-known models of Tullock (1980) and Lazear & Rosen (1981) as special cases. The contest outcome depends on players' effort and skill, the latter being subject to symmetric uncertainty. The model is tractable, because a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012138813
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Whereas many others have scrutinized the Allais paradox from a theoretical angle, we study the paradox from an historical perspective and link our findings to a suggestion as to how decision theory could make use of it today. We emphasize that Allais proposed the paradox as a normative argument,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012120707
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I provide axiomatic foundations for a model of taste uncertainty with endogenous learning through consumption. In this setting, uncertainty is over an unobservable, subjective state space. Preference over lottery–menu pairs is sufficient to identify the state space and the learning process. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011744296