This study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries. Multivariate VAR analysis is carried out using both linear and non-linear models. The latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature, namely,...

This paper sets up a small open economy model to compare the link between exchange rates and interest rates under full and imperfect information. The informational friction considered here corresponds to the case where the central bank, while failing to observe output and inflation, can extract...

We assess claims that OPEC's ability to influence real oil prices has diminished and that the relationship between real oil prices and OPEC production can be used to test competing hypotheses about OPEC behavior. An econometric analysis indicates that there is a statistically significant...

This paper revisits the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates using a simple model that incorporates the role of exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices and distinguishes between cases of expansionary and contractionary depreciations. The model results show that the...

In our multi-country currency union model, national fiscal authorities free ride on the single monetary authority, which leads to higher interest rate variability. We carry out welfare comparisons between monetary autonomy and currency union, assessing the sensitivity of results around...

This paper characterises Romania's experience with anti-inflationary monetary targeting over the period 1999-2005 prior to the country's switch to inflation targeting. We uncover the National Bank of Romania's preferences, conditional on an estimated macro-model. We find that Romania's monetary...

In our multi-country currency union model, national fiscal authorities free ride on the single monetary authority, which leads to higher interest rate variability. We carry out welfare comparisons between monetary autonomy and currency union, assessing the sensitivity of results around...

This article finds strong evidence of oil-induced stagflation in major G7 economies. Oil shocks provoked output losses and higher inflation on a widespread basis from the mid-1970s to the early 1980s, as well as - to a lesser extent - in the new millennium.