We develop and test a frog-in-the-pan hypothesis that predicts investors are less attentive to information arriving continuously in small amounts than to information with the same cumulative stock price implications arriving in large amounts at discrete timepoints. Intuitively, we hypothesize...

We test a frog-in-the-pan (FIP) hypothesis that predicts investors are inattentive to information arriving continuously in small amounts. Intuitively, we hypothesize that a series of frequent gradual changes attracts less attention than infrequent dramatic changes. Consistent with the FIP...

State governments receive an exogenous tax windfall whenever their residents win a multi-state lottery. These lottery tax windfalls are counter-cyclical but occur during a range of economic conditions. Therefore, lottery tax windfalls enable us to estimate the impact of fiscal policy on...

We develop and test a frog-in-the-pan (FIP) hypothesis that predicts investors are less attentive to information arriving continuously in small amounts than to information with the same cumulative stock price implications arriving in large amounts at discrete timepoints. Intuitively, we...

The profit to a standard short-term return reversal strategy can be decomposed analytically into four components: 1) across-industry return momentum, 2) within-industry variation in expected returns, 3) under-reaction to within-industry cash flow news, and 4) a residual. Only the residual...

Using novel data from a crowdsourcing platform for ranking stocks, we investigate how investors form expectations about stock returns over the next week. We find that investors extrapolate from stocks' recent past returns, with more weight on more recent returns, especially when recent returns...

Short selling efficiency (SSE), measured each month by the slope coefficient of cross-sectionally regressing abnormal short interest on an overpricing score, significantly and negatively predicts stock market returns both in-sample and out-of-sample, suggesting that mispricing gets corrected...

We identify Industry-Neutral Self-Financed Informed Trading (INSFIT) by long only fund managers who possess a positive short-lived private signal and self finance informed stock purchases by selling an equivalent dollar amount of stock in the same industry. INSFIT, which constitutes less than 1%...

When will a large group provide an accurate answer to a question involving quantity estimation? We empirically examine this question on a crowd-based corporate earnings forecast platform (Estimize.com). By tracking user activities, we monitor the amount of public information a user views before...

We examine net arbitrage trading (NAT) measured by the difference between quarterly abnormal hedge fund holdings and abnormal short interest. NAT strongly predicts stock returns in the cross section. Across 10 well-known stock anomalies, abnormal returns are realized only among stocks...