The authors of this paper claim that modeling financial markets based on probability theory is a severe systematic mistake that led to the global financial crisis. They argue that the crisis was not just the result of risk managers using outdated financial data, but that the employed efficiency...

The authors of this paper claim that modeling financial markets based on probability theory is a severe systematic mistake that led to the global financial crisis. They argue that the crisis was not just the result of risk managers using outdated financial data, but that the employed efficiency...

In this paper we challenge basic results of signaling models. In our banking model each project of a borrower is described by a continuous density of outcomes. Different density functions are classified according to second stochastisch dominance. Combining these features we find that in a...

In this paper an extension of the well-known binomial approach to option pricing is presented. The classical question is: What is the price of an option on the risky asset? The traditional answer is obtained with the help of a replicating portfolio by ruling out arbitrage. Instead a two-person...

In this paper we study the validity of the assertion that collateral is in a position to signal the degree of borrowers’ riskiness. We use a framework in which the cash flow from the risky project is described by means of a continuous density and projects are classified by second-order...

In this paper we challenge basic results of signaling models. In our banking model each project of a borrower is described by a continuous density of outcomes. Different density functions are classified according to second stochastisch dominance. Combining these features we find that in a...